2012: Fact & Fantasy

An enormous amount of hoopla surrounds the year 2012 in contemporary culture. More than a dozen books, hundreds of web sites and videos, and a full length motion picture present a variety of scenarios about the world’s end—or perhaps instead a collective global transformation—on or around December 21, 2012. What’s this all about?

The main point, which most who have looked into the 2012 phenomena are aware of, is that December 21, 2012 marks the end of an ancient Mayan calendar known as the "Long Count." This calendar depicts a 5,126 year cycle that began on August 11, 3114 BC and will end on December 21, 2012. The Mayan civilization originated in Central America around 600 BC and reached its height during the period 300 – 900 AD, when most of the large pyramids and major architectural structures were built. Though they maintained many different cyclical calendars, the Long Count was regarded as one "Great Cycle" for the earth. Five of these great cycles define one Grand Cycle, a 25,630 year cycle corresponding to the length of the precession of the earth’s axis (the earth’s axis wobbles around—like axis of a spinning top—one complete cycle every 25,630 years).

But how could the ancient Mayans, whose calendars were created more than 2000 years ago, know anything about something as complex and long-lasting as the precession of the earth’s axis? How could they have anything to say about a major change or transformation of human civilization more than a thousand years after their own civilization went into decline? After all, the Mayans had none of the science and technology we have today to discover esoteric astronomical events such as the precession of the earth’s axis.

Which is precisely why there has been such a fascination with their calendars. The Mayans seemed to know a lot more than can be easily explained. Their surviving records predicted the conquest by the Spanish conquistadors five hundred years after their civilization went into decline. They also seemed to know that in 2012 the solar system, in its journey around the milky way galaxy, would exactly intersect the plane of the galaxy, a phenomenon they described as the "sacred cross" (see below). Speculation has it that the Mayans either had some incredible degree of insight into the future as well as astronomy, or that they received a little help from their friends, where "friends" were extraterrestrials who instructed them in advanced astronomical knowledge.

Though much has been read into the end of the Mayan Long Count, with interpretations ranging from gloom and doom "end of the world" scenarios to much more positive views of a major acceleration of human consciousness, nobody really knows what—if anything—is going to happen. The ancient Mayan pictograms and written records are surprisingly silent about the year 2012 itself. The few links that exist in ancient Mayan culture with 2012 tend to get lost in a confusing patchwork of competing New Age theories that are often based on inaccurate facts or misinterpretations of ancient Mayan documents. In fact, the date 12-21-2012 is mentioned only once in the entire known body of Mayan symbolic text. In this one instance, no mention is made of anything like the events of current speculation. Nor is 2012 a part of current Mayan cultural tradition. Among the ten million Maya living in the Yucatan and Central America today, few have participated in the 2012 phenomena or even had exposure to it. Those who do seem to have obtained their information from sources outside of the culture. While there is a long-standing tradition in Mayan culture of a coming time of great changes for humanity (as there is among Hopi, Navajo, and other native American groups), any connection of this with 2012 is only recent and not a part of the tradition. Presently Mayan shamans and elders speak of a coming time of great change, but they are divided on whether 2012 has any special significance as a critical turning point. Those who do believe 2012 is highly significant appear to have been influenced by outside sources, such as the work of Jose Arguelles, a non-Mayan scholar who is largely responsible for originating and shaping the 2012 phenomenon.

So what can we say for sure is going to happen in 2012? Certainly there are a couple of astronomical happenings that are a matter of scientific fact.

Every eleven years the Sun goes through a solar cycle from solar minimum to solar maximum. The next solar maximum is predicted for 2011-2012. During a solar maximum, sun spots may appear and the sun’s magnetic field becomes more distorted due to the fact that it rotates faster at the equator than it does at the poles. During a solar maximum, there is a greater possibility of the sun emitting solar flares. A solar flare is large explosion in the sun’s atmosphere that releases enormous numbers of particles (protons, electrons, and heavier particles) into outer space. X-rays and ultraviolet radiation caused by solar flares can interact with the Earth’s ionosphere and cause disruptions in radio and TV transmissions. Solar flares happen regularly but are more frequent and powerful at the time of the solar maximum. An exceptionally powerful solar flare can cause a coronal mass ejection. A coronal mass ejection is a large outburst of the sun’s corona containing powerful lines of magnetic disturbance. Unlike the solar flare, the coronal mass ejection can affect and alter the earth’s magnetic field. These ejections are always occurring, with about one per week during the solar minimum and 2 or 3 per day during a solar maximum.

A large enough solar flare or a coronal mass ejection does have the possibility of overloading the electrical grid systems on earth and causing widespread blackouts. This actually happened during the 1989 solar maximum, causing widespread power outages for several hours in Canada and the United States. However, this happens rarely and there is nothing, so far, that would indicate that the next solar maximum in 2011-12 will be any larger or have any more adverse effects than previous ones. One popular theory in the 2012 literature is that a large coronal mass ejection could occur that year due to the pull of the galaxy’s center on the solar system during the predicted alignment of the sun with the galactic plane. However, the size and mass of the galactic center is so great relative to our solar system that gravitational influences have already been in effect for some time as the solar system passes through the plane of the galaxy. Thus they are not likely to be significantly larger in the short span of one year, 2012, than the have been for some time. If a truly large solar storm were to occur in 2012, one in the order of magnitude of the great solar superstorm of 1859, then the consequences for the earth might be disastrous, not because of direct destruction to the earth, but because of the possibility of burning out enough of the electric grid system so that it would be hard to restore electrical power for an extended period of time. This is what happened in 1859, when the only electrified system, the telegraph system, was knocked out for a period of weeks. Because our modern technology and communications systems are almost totally dependent on electricity, to have them down for a long period of time could spell widespread disaster for humanity. For those readers interested in a reputable account of what could happen, see the New Scientist article: "Space-Storm Alert: 90 Seconds from Catastrophe" which appeared in March, 2009. The problem for 2012 doomsayers is that there is no credible scientific basis for predicting that a major solar superstorm will occur in that year, any more than during any other solar maximum year.

Another gloom and doom scenario popular in the 2012 literature is the idea of a sudden reversal of the earth’s magnetic field, called a geomagnetic reversal. In such an event, the earth’s magnetic field reverses so that compasses would point to the south pole. Basically, the polarity of the magnetic field surrounding the earth would reverse. This can happen over a long period of time, or in as short a time as a period of a few days. It’s important to distinguish a geomagnetic reversal from the idea of a polar shift, as the two are often confused in the 2012 literature. In a polar shift, the axis of the earth actually moves dramatically and/or the rotation of the earth reverses. A polar shift would be truly catastrophic, but happens exceedingly rarely, most likely as the result of a major collision of a planet with another planet-sized object, as astronomers believe may have happened to the planets Venus (which rotates in a direction opposite to that of other planets) and Uranus (which rotates on its side). Such an event is likely to happen only once every 5 billion years. Geomagnetic reversals are much more common and are believed to occur on the average once every 500,000 years on earth, though historical evidence indicates that the time periods between previous ones have varied widely. Available evidence shows that the last one, which occurred about 780,000 years ago, did not result in widespread destruction of life on earth or interfere with the evolution of hominids toward human beings. People who imagine a geomagnetic reversal is imminent point to the evidence that the earth’s magnetic field has been weakening for some time. Geologist and popular new age writer, Gregg Braden, notes that the Earth’s magnetic field has dropped 38% in the last two thousand years, and the rate of decline has risen to an average of 6% per hundred years over the last century. Such weakening does, in fact, predict increased odds of a geomagnetic reversal happening. However the field strength of the earth’s magnetic field is still measured to be slightly above average compared to its norm over the past million years, and there is not one shred of scientific evidence that it’s likely to decline to a point where a reversal could occur in the next couple of years. Scientifically speaking, there is no way to predict when the next geomagnetic reversal is likely to occur, but, given the infrequency of the event, it’s unlikely in our lifetimes. Furthermore, there is no scientific evidence that our solar system passing through the exact centerpoint of the plane of the galaxy will have any particular effect on the earth’s geomagnetic field. The notion of the geomagnetic field reversing as the earth and solar system goes from above to below the exact centerpoint of the galactic plane (or that the earth will start rotating in the opposite direction) is sheer fantasy. Finally, the idea that a geomagnetic reversal could be triggered by a large enough solar flare or coronal mass ejection from the sun has no basis in scientific fact. Even if it did, there is no scientific basis for assuming such an event would occur in 2012. For further information on geomagnetic reversal in relation to 2012, go to the article, "2012: No Geomagnetic Reversal" on the web.

In sum, there is no credible scientific basis for believing anything out of the ordinary is going to happen in 2012. Should we conclude, then, that the all of the imagined 2012 scenarios are largely hype—without any basis beyond the fact that the Mayan Long Count calendar is going to end that year? For the most part, interpretations of the ancient Mayan calendars and other documents have been developed by non-Mayan researchers such as Jose Arguelles, John Major Jenkins, and Carl Johan Calleman. What do present Mayan elders and leaders have to say about 2012?

As mentioned, the Mayan elders have not had much to say about 2012. Those who do speak of major changes appear to have been influenced by outside researchers such as Jose Arguelles. Most important, these elders do not mention major cataclysms or destruction associated with 2012. Instead they speak of coming years, including 2012, as a time of major transformation of human consciousness—a transformation critically needed for humanity to avert the catastrophic consequences of their own present destructive activities toward the earth. Such a perspective is essentially the same as that of many other consciousness leaders around the world concerned about our planet’s destiny and future in the 21st century.

There are 440 Mayan Elders (one representing each of the 440 Mayan tribes) who meet each year as the Mayan Council of Elders, comprised of 265 grandfathers and 175 grandmothers. The head of the entire council is Grandfather Don Alejandro Cirilo Perez Oxlaj, a Mayan shaman sometimes known as Wandering Wolf.

According to Grandfather Alejandro, it has been 526 years since the Maya have released any information about prophecies for the future. Over the next few years they intend to release some of this information, including information from five Mayan calendars that have never been seen publicly. On November 25 and 26, 2007, the elders released some of the secret information to an American consciousness researcher whom they respect, named Drunvalo Melchizedek. At the time of this writing, people are still waiting for the release of a webcast and video by Drunvalo about that 2007 meeting. Drunvelo’s web site indicates that this is to happen in the summer of 2009.

Grandfather Alejandro has come forward several times on behalf of the Elders to make statements about the importance of the times we are living in and to announce that there are, indeed, ancient prophecies about these times. However he does not speak of cataclysm or the destruction of the earth; rather he talks about the dawning of a new era in which humanity will find its correct relationship with the earth. He also mentions a different date than 12-21-12, saying that Day Zero, the day from which the new era begins, will be March 31, 2013. He and other Mayan elders protest the creation of destructive prophecies about 2012 in the name of the Maya. The end of the Long Count calendar will be accompanied by a difficult transition created by humanity’s own destructive actions toward the Earth, however it marks the beginning of a whole new cycle and a new consciousness—not the end of the world.

So neither science nor the statements of Mayan Elders support the idea a catastrophic scenario for 2012. The end of the Long Count calendar definitely marks a time of great transition and change for the world, but any destructive events that occur in that year or in subsequent years will be our own doing, not the result of grand cosmic or geological events beyond our control. So then, should we just relax, keep meditating, and do what we can to heal ourselves as well as help the planet, dismissing the 2012 phenomenon as another overrated cultural drama like the Y2K phenomenon in 1999?

The best answer, based on my personal research, is "not quite." This is because of certain "psychic" predictions that have been made. To take one example, Edward Dames was in charge of a U.S. Defense Intelligence team of remote viewers. (Remote viewing is another name for clairvoyance—the ability to "see" events that are not available to direct observation. It’s closely related to precognition—the ability to foresee events that events that have not happened yet.) Dames’s remote viewing team was not able to see events past the year 2012. Their conclusion was not that the world was going to end but that there would be a global shift so large that the remote viewers could not get a clear picture of what the earth would be like post-2012. Dames believes that the nature of time itself changes after 2012, saying: "Something happened on earth that affects the entire earth in the future, all at once, and when we look around everything is different." Other psychic predictions, some by well known author/speakers such as Dannion Brinkley, have been made about an enormous change in 2012, including a dramatic expansion of consciousness and, once again, a change in the nature of time. Brinkley claims he was shown what would happen in 2012 when out of his body during his three near-death experiences. Others who have had out-of-the-body or near death experiences have also reported prophetic visions about 2012. The credibility of any psychic predictions can certainly be questioned, but can we dismiss such predictions outright? Probably not. So we are left, in the end, with 2012 remaining a mystery. There is a great deal of hype and fantasy about all kinds of proposed scenarios that have little basis in fact, but we cannot rule out the possibility that something of enormous magnitude and impact just might happen in that year.

For those readers who are looking for negative prophecies of the future, they can be found in several sources. Among the best known are the Hopi prophecies, reported by Frank Waters in his 1963 book, Book of the Hopi; the quatrains of the 16th century prophet Nostradamus, and the "prophecy of the popes" by the 12th century bishop St. Malachy. This article does not explore these prophecies further because they were made long ago, and the chance always exists (hopefully) that earth’s outlook or destiny may have improved in the meantime. Moreover, these prophecies are not specifically connected to the year 2012.

On July 29, 2009, Drunvalo Melchizedek gave a webcast where he communicated information on behalf of the Mayan elders (in particular, Don Alejandro) regarding 2012. Since Drunvalo is one of the few non-Mayans entrusted by the elders to speak on their behalf, many people around the world were awaiting this transmission.

Several notable things were conveyed by Drunvalo that make it necessary to update the material in this section. The main point is that the Mayans do, in fact, foresee a dramatic change in consciousness happening for all of humanity in coming years. This has actually been a part of their cultural belief system for some time—a view they share with many other Native American groups, such as the Hopis. However this change does not occur suddenly on the day that the Long Count calendar ends—December 21, 2012. Rather, according to Don Alejandro, the change will culminate sometime during an eight year period that began October 24, 2007 and will end by 2015. The Mayan elders believe that the increasing chaos that is being experienced on Earth at this time (climate change, economic upheaval, widespread disruption of ecological cycles, for example) is something that always occurs at the end of a great cycle. Since we are about to move from the fourth to the fifth "world" in Mayan cosmology, the Earth and humanity have already been through this kind of transition four times before over the past twenty-five thousand years.

According to Drunvalo , the Mayan elders (much like the Hopis) believe the old world order must disintegrate in order for the next one to emerge. This has happened at the end of each previous "world" and needs to happen this time as well. So Drunvalo does, in fact, speak of the negative prophecies associated with the 2012 phenomenon—including both a geomagnetic reversal as well as a polar shift—a rapid shift of the position of the earth’s axis by 17 degrees. The latter, of course, would have devastating consequences. These negative scenarios have been part of the 2012 movement for quite some time. As mentioned above, though, they have almost no scientific evidence to support them.

So what are we to make of Drunvalo’s claim regarding the likelihood of stereotypic 2012 end-of-the-world scenarios? There are at least three possible interpretations. One is that the Mayan prophecies themselves predict a polar shift and widespread earth changes. This seems quite unlikely, since virtually no known archeological evidence from ancient Mayan murals, stelae or documents supports the idea of a polar reversal or shift during or around the year 2012. Another interpretation is that the elders are simply saying "the old world will go," and Drunvalo is taking the liberty of appropriating two common scenarios within the 2012 movement about how the present world order could come to an end and then reading these into the Mayan prophecies. A third possibility is that Don Alejandro himself appropriated these negative scenarios from the 2012 movement (geomagnetic reversal and/or polar shift) into his own personal viewpoint. Though highly respected throughout the Yucatan and Central America, Don Alejandro has been noted in the past to embrace relatively "far out" new age views. He has been known to claim that the Mayans ultimately came from Atlantis and that the crystal skulls (well known within the new age movement) came from the Pleiades star formation. He has even stated that extraterrestrials from the Pleiades—the "wise ones"—will return again in 2012. None of this has any basis in known historical Maya sources.

As mentioned earlier, the scientific evidence for either a geomagnetic reversal or a polar shift proposed by Drunvalo is negligible. In his webcast, Drunvalo himself cites little solid evidence for either. He makes some loose references to whales beaching and migrating birds ending up in the wrong places recently due to a weakening of the earth’s magnetic lines of force, however these are not explained in detail or referenced. It’s true that the earth’s magnetic field has been weakening for the last century—a prerequisite for a geomagnetic reversal. Yet is has not yet weakened to a point where such a reversal would be likely in the next few years. As previously mentioned, it’s impossible to predict when the next reversal will occur, but it’s unlikely to happen soon. In all fairness, though, we should certainly take pause if there are reliable scientific reports in the next few years of a substantial weakening of the earth’s magnetic field. As for a polar shift of the earth’s axis by 17 degrees, there is no accepted scientific theory as to how this could occur other than a collision of the earth with a large object. Worldwide observation by astronomers of the solar system indicates no such object is in range of even coming near the earth within the next few years.  So, in the final analysis, we are still left with little evidence for the prospect of a reversal of the earth’s poles in the next few years and no evidence for a polar shift.  The Hollywood movie ‘2012’ presents an opposing view, supposedly coming from the fictitious "Institute of Human Continuity." Yet this is simply a marketing tactic and has nothing to do with science.

For those people who still worry about the prospect of cataclysms and earth changes in 2012, Don Alejandro says we should strive not to worry. We should focus instead on the coming emergence of a new consciousness on earth. Ancient wisdom will come to the forefront and we will all find it easier to live from our hearts, practicing compassion toward one another and the earth. We will be less stuck in dualities and have a much clearer perception of the unity of all humanity—indeed, the unity of all things. If we can refrain from holding onto fear about the global death and rebirth process—whether brought on by external causes, or (much more likely) at humanity’s own hands—we will move through the transition much more smoothly.

What can we conclude from all of the above? Certainly it’s possible that significant changes could occur in the year 2012. People have had all kinds of visions about major changes—particularly changes in human consciousness and changes in the nature of time-- associated with that year. So we can’t assume that nothing is going to happen. Yet it’s quite unlikely—at least from a scientific standpoint—that the negative scenarios associated with a geomagnetic reversal or polar shift of the earth’s axis are going to happen.  It’s even less plausible that a rogue planet is going to collide with the earth, as proposed by the movie ‘2012.’  Readers interested in exploring the 2012 phenomena further might take a look at the book, The Mystery of 2012, published by Sounds True. The book contains a wide range of essays by many experts on 2012 and other leaders in the consciousness field. Many different viewpoints are presented. There are people who want to believe in negative scenarios for 2012 because they feel the existing human order has descended into such chaos that it needs to be "wiped clean," so to speak. There are many other people who feel the 2012 phenomenon, like the Y2K phenomenon, is overrated. Yes, we are headed toward a major unraveling and reorganization of human civilization. But it will be at our own hands as a result of climate change, diminishing resources, rapid population increase, and other adverse trends. It will occur over decades, not in a single year. There are still other people who believe the 2012 death and rebirth scenario is largely symbolic: an archetype in the collective consciousness of humanity representing a dramatic global shift in consciousness spoken of on this web site. It is more like a dream image pointing to upcoming changes in our collective minds and hearts, not a literal set of events. 

In the final analysis, each of must decide for ourselves the meaning of 2012. Hopefully this article will help readers to sort out what is factual form what is fiction.

Ed Bourne, Ph.D.